As the calendar turns to October, let’s take a look at where things stand in the NFL MVP race after the first full month of football.
This time last week, Bills quarterback Josh Allen was the favorite to win his first MVP award, thanks to a sizzling 3-0 start. However, a drubbing in Baltimore at the hands of the Ravens pushed his odds behind Chiefs quarterback and award-hog Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes has +300 odds currently at DraftKings Sportsbook (a $10 bet pays $30 total), while Allen is at +350.
Among the other early contenders is Lamar Jackson at +800. Considering Jackson has already won this award twice, plus the fact that he has not duplicated that success in the payoffs, I’m not sure that he is a strong candidate to win the award for a third time.
Remember, these awards are partly narrative-based, and voters sometimes look for a new story and hesitate to vote for recent winners.
So, speaking of stories, if the season ended after Week 4 and voting occurred today (it doesn’t, I just double-checked to make sure), there would be few stories in NFL history as incredible and improbable as this one: Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold is the MVP so far, leading the league with both 11 touchdowns and 118.8 quarterback rating.
The former top-three pick, turned journeyman is lighting up the league and is now at +800 odds to complete what would be one of the more remarkable journeys to MVP the league has ever seen. Darnold and the Vikings are 4-0, and they’re getting healthier.
Emerging star wide receiver Jordan Addison returned last week against the Packers, and pro-bowl tight end TJ Hockenson is expected back in the coming weeks. Not only is the team undefeated, but it has done it against a very difficult schedule, as it has emphatic wins over the 49ers, Texans and Packers.
Coming into the season, Darnold had a very modest 63-56 TD-INT ratio for his career, as well as a 21-35 record as a starting quarterback. That being said, this four-game stretch is starting to feel like it’s more than a fluke; it feels sustainable more and more every week.
At +800 odds, you’re not getting the same great odds you could have gotten weeks ago, but with the way Darnold is playing, perhaps “better late than never” is a good way to look at this.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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